The next day, a new day

And what a day it was! November 5, 2008. Here in Buffalo the sky was a deep blue, brilliant sunshine, the remaining leaves glowing on the trees, temperatures in the upper 60s (F), and a new President.

At our party last night, we were monitoring the results on-line and on old-fashioned TV. When Pennsylvania was called for Obama, which was not a surprise since I felt all along that the whole PA push by McCain was propaganda, it was a relief. Watching as numbers were rolling in from VA, GA, FL and Indiana...Kept refreshing the Indiana numbers to see things going back and forth, but all the while noting that Lake County hadn't reported anything yet (the county where Gary is, and right next door to Illinois). Since that IN was tight, it was only a good thing.

Then when networks started calling Ohio for Obama, I knew that was it. I had spent enough time on fivethirtyeight.com to know what the other states looked like for Obama, and run the numbers through my own spreadsheet enough to know that with Ohio + Kerry states (which Obama was predicted to win), it was over for McCain. As long as the exit polls were accurate...
And then came NM, and Iowa, some saying CO also (not surprising, given the polls, but still great news). AZ still too close to call, which was an indication of the night, and NC and FL still unknown and close.

Approaching 11PM EST and it was clear that we were just waiting for the west coast polls to close.

11PM hits, then NBC (we had that network on) called it for Obama. I heard it, then repeated it, and sat for a minute...it was over. Eight long, horrible, wasted years over. Eight years of ripping the government apart and selling the parts to cronies is over. It is so much harder to build than to tear down, but we've got to do it now.

The night went on, getting better. VA and FL come in for Obama, and then IN. GA to McCain, but the numbers from GA seem screwy. Pulling for Franken in MN, for prop 8 to go down in CA, and for at least a run-off in GA senate.

Closer to home, nothing terribly exciting as incumbents won state senate and assembly seats. State senate did go Democratic, which is really good news for pulling NYS into the modern era regarding same sex marriage/unions.

Higgins (D) won easily in our house seat (was anyone running against him? Oh yeah, the tanning bed guy). Slaughter (D) won, but Lee (R) won in the seat vacated by Tom Reynolds of Mark Foley fame. That seat was a long shot since it is a 60-40 Republican district. I hope the voters in that district enjoy having a rep who wields next to no power as a freshman R in a heavy D House.
....
So now we have elected change, elected to change, elected to go in a new direction. Enough people finally said that they would not vote for fear anymore. That we would not just cower in the corner while the "leaders" changed the colors on the Risk of the Day chart. That we would not be afraid to say that greed isn't what makes things happen, that maybe government does have a role to play. That we still have time to tape the Constitution back together. That the world we live in is a world of people, not a world of "others". That just because we can make up names like enemy combatant doesn't mean they're real. That we can't spread democracy without being democratic.
That fear is not a governing principle nor a foreign policy. That being poor is not a crime, that being rich is not a free pass. That we can try to do better and, yes, we can do better. As opposed to "How can 59,054,087 people be so dumb", we hear the world cheering.

Yes, it was a good day today.

GOTV- making calls

I just finished doing a stint phonebanking for Obama. Since I am in NY State, my calls were going out of state. While I was at the calling location, the Polish Cadets Hall, there were probably 30-40 people there making calls. Very business-like. Nobody was taking anything for granted, everyone calling, reminding people to vote (for Obama, of course), providing polling location information, and asking if people needed rides. Most of my calls were to Milwaukee, but the previous shift of callers were calling Floridians. Apparently, people were commenting that the Floridians seemed to be a bit more, shall we say, vocal when not supporting Obama, than those we called in Wisconsin.
Three things jump out at me from my calling experience.
1. Men are generally less friendly on the phone, especially if they are not for Obama.
2. A LOT of people just use the generic answering machine message (the pre-recorded voice).
3. It’s better to have a map in front of you when you are calling because it helps you visualize better where these people are; you get a better sense that they are people and not just a phone number.

Anyway, I just wanted to point out that if you haven’t done any calling, it is not too late. Do a little bit more and enjoy the results tomorrow night. But don’t enjoy until it is done.
GOTV!

McCain is losing to win

A funny thing happened on the way home from work today…I realized that John McCain was actually winning the election. I realized this after I listened to a story on All Things Considered. The transcript from ATC on NPR:

"The national media has written us off. Senator Obama is measuring the drapes, and planning with Speaker (Nancy) Pelosi and Senator (Harry) Reid to raise taxes, increase spending, take away your right to vote by secret ballot in labor elections, and concede defeat in Iraq. But they forgot to let you decide. My friends, we've got them just where we want them,"

So let’s break this down.

1) Obama is measuring the drapes.
This is clearly bad since it either shows that Obama crazy or overconfident. Crazy because why would anyone “measure the drapes?" Who cares what size the old drapes are? On the other hand, if he were implying that Obama is over confident, then he should have said he was measuring the windows for new drapes. But he clearly said Obama is measuring the drapes, so it is bad for Obama.

2) Obama is planning with Pelosi and Reid to raise taxes, increase spending and take away your right to vote by secret ballot in labor elections and concede defeat in Iraq.

This is also bad because no one, NOONE should be planning. You’ve got to go with your gut. No plannin’, no readin’, no lookin’ into the history of things to see what’s been done, what didn’t work, and what did. No thinkin’ about things and puttin’ together a strategy. That’s bad.

3) They forgot to let you decide.
Again, bad for Obama. Everyone in the Obama campaign and supporting Obama forgot that we had to have an election to choose the president. I know I did. I just assumed Obama was President already.

But, assuming we didn’t forget this, we must have forgotten that we don’t get to vote, just the Republicans get to vote, because they get to “decide.” So, to summarize this: They (meaning Obama supporters? Obama himself?) forgot to let you (Republican operatives, kool-aid drinkers in the crowd) decide. Translation: Democrats are supposed to let Republicans decide who is President.

4) We’ve got them where we want them.

While I am not sure who the “them” is (maybe he meant ‘that?’), I think this is very bad.

We fell for the trap. It was McCain’s plan all along to run a crappy campaign with no ideas, a lot of secret plans, choose an incompetent ex-mayor as his VP candidate, and then incite hateful rallies masked as campaign stops and fall way behind in the polls in order to make us think he was losing the election. Actually, he is winning because he wanted to be losing right now. Oh the agony! Curse you John McCain!

I dread seeing any new polls because they keep showing that McCain’s strategy of losing more states is really working. It’s all so clear now. Choose someone from a state with fewer electoral votes than Arizona and less governing experience than Bush had, pull out of Michigan, suspend the campaign, ramble incoherently at the debates…Oh woe is us! What else can he do to lose to win? Call the economy sound? I shudder to think…

Ahoy me hearty!

Shiver me timbers, Cap'n Snowbelt thought that all you landlubbers and scurvy dogs needed to remember to celebrate today...That's right, its Talk Like A Pirate Day, me chumbuckets!

What better day than this to celebrate the raisin’ o’ Cap’n Obama’s polls? He can barely sail into port before the crowds o’ land lubbers come runnin’ to greet ‘im. Change is in the wind like the flyin’ o’ the mainsail and the riggin’ o’ the yardarm!

Now don’t get me started on that dirty dog Pegleg McSame and his first matey, Bridges. There’s two of the worst scalawags that set foot on the sea (so to speak). Many a time did we try to rope in that Pegleg McSame, but, blast ‘im, he keeps escapin’ to one o’ his other houses, drat it! But, mind, you, I hear he’s get a load o’ treasure somewhere! Thanks to one o’ his wenches and her rum runnin’

Now get out there and raise a pint o'grog or rum, as ye see fit!
Arrr!

To tan or not to tan

As if we needed more reasons to think everything is somehow related to Buffalo, McSame's running mate's tanning need is supported by a local businessman,Dan Humiston, who is running against incumbent Congressman Brian Higgins (D). It turns out that this businessman, is the president of the Tanning Bed chain (a mostly WNY chain)l , according to this Buffalo News article.

I would also point out that I didn't even know anyone was running against Higgins, so clearly he needs better exposure.

But if McSame/Plain win the election, he just might become the next Attany General!

Perspective

I originally posted this on KOS yesterday as the market was melting...

"Prosperity, real prosperity has just begun." Brisbane also told his 25,000,000 reader that "stock gamblers may be worried, but the people at large feel cheerful."

- from A Nation in Torment: The Great American Depression, 1929-1939 by Edward Robb Ellis, 1970.

I just thought that a cheery quote was just the thing for everyone, given the events of the day.../snark

The quote, from p 69, is by Arthur Brisbane, then Hearst editorial writer. It is in response to events of Oct 1-3, 1929.

Continuing some pages later is another statement that is too familiar:

"Aware of the sickening crisis on the floor of the exchange, the six bankers decided to form a coalition to pump new life into the dying market. This they did by forming a pool, with each pledging $40 million for a total of $240 million. An additional $100 million was supplied by other financial firms...It was by far the largest concentration of pool buying power ever directed at the stock market. What they wanted to do was to indulge in a bold psychological gesture to end the panic - and to protect themselves."

This was on Thursday October 24, 1929.

On p. 81:

"in point of fact, the bankers' pool failed to save the market but did save the big boys themselves...They did give temporary support to such market leaders as United States Steel, then quietly fed back into the market nearly all the shares they had bought - at a fair profit to themselves."

"Then came Tuesday, October 29, 1929."

(sorry for so many quotes, I think that Ellis said it much better than I could paraphrase)

As neither an economist nor a "seer," I have no idea what today will mean in history. However, if we spent a bit more time understanding history, we might not be at a place again where bail-outs are needed for entities too big to fail. It's not a problem that can be solved in a day or two; it required vigilance and (real) grown-ups to keep an eye on things. We are seeing the culmination of years of deregulation and the mess that is created when no one cares who is making how much money and certainly no one cares how it was made.

Anyone looking to dump their Social Security into the market right now, raise their hand...

Not bad!

A very interesting piece about the increase in use of light rail.
From today's Buffalo News:

Buffalo commuters are leading the nation when it comes to taking light rail to beat the high cost of driving.

Metro Rail ridership skyrocketed 45.9 percent in the second quarter of this year compared to 2008 passenger counts, according to a survey released by the American Public Transportation Association today. Ridership went from 1.2 million in the second quarter of 2007 to almost 1.8 million trips in the same period this year.

This is good for the environment and good for hopes of extending the light rail line.
The article goes on to say:

Record light rail counts were also recorded in Philadelphia (34.9%), Kenosha, Wis. (26.9%) and Sacramento, Calif. (26.3%).

I guess we have Atrios to thank for the increase in Philly...Go Supertrain! Scroll down to see one of his many posts promoting better rail.

As anyone who watched the Bills beat Seattle today know, it is rainy here in Buffalo. A slight glimpse of the Fall to come, and a brief respite from the non-stop festivals, fetes and fun of the Niagara Frontier summer.

Local and state primaries are Tuesday, but nothing too exciting. The most interesting races are in the Democratic primary to see who will run for Tom Reynolds' House seat. It is a three-way primary race that has been pretty ugly and rarely factual. I wish Democrats would run as tough against Republicans as they do against each other.

The other race of interest is a NY State Assembly primary between long-time incumbent Sam Hoyt, and challenger Barbara Cavanaugh. Not sure how this is going, but it seems like it will be close, based on the number of mailings I received.

John McCain's Houses

After a bit of digging, I was finally able to find out why John McCain couldn't, or actually, didn't want to remember how many houses he has. The picture below sums it up best (actual footage):